EUR/USD Forex Signal - 11 July 2019

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EURUSD: Euro stronger but within long-term range

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bearish price action at 1.1255.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1279 or 1.1317.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1250 or 1.1235.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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EUR/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that there may not be any good opportunities here until at least the FOMC minutes were released later. I took no directional bias on this pair and wanted to avoid trading it.

This was maybe a little unfortunate, as I also noted that we were seeing a likely bottoming out at 1.1200, and this area held to produce a strong move up after the Fed last night signalled a more dovish picture on rate cuts. Every currency strengthened against the Dollar, and the Euro was one of the major gainers. However, the long-term position is neutral, with the price well within its long-term price range.

Overall, it seems the best strategy is to look for either long or short trades without bias, at turns at major support or resistance levels. It is not clear that the current Dollar weakness will last.EURUSDThere is nothing of high importance due today regarding the EUR. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of CPI (Inflation) data at 1:30pm London time today, followed by testimony from the Chair of the Federal Reserve before the Senate at 3pm.

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.