BTC/USD Forex Signal

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Bitcoin: $10,000 the pivotal point.

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action at $9,660.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry at a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $9,073, $8,893, or $8,610.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $9.924, $10,204, or $10,359.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that there was a lot of pressure weighing down on the price: two medium-term bearish trend lines, and four horizontal resistance levels between $9,660 and $10,359. I thought any of these could provide a good short trade entry opportunity. There were no bearish rejections at the levels which were reached, so the call wasn’t profitable but was at least enough to keep out of trouble.

The picture is slightly more bullish as the price has risen and printed new higher support, but direction looks extremely uncertain right now. There is still one of the medium to long-term bearish trend lines above the current price very confluent with the psychological level of $10,000. I think the bulls will find this level hard to break. So, I will still take a bearish bias if we get a strong bearish reversal at any of these key levels above the current price, but I would be relatively quick to take profits as there seems to be a lot of support below $9,400.

btcusd

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data at 1:15pm London time, followed by the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate at 7pm and the FOMC Press Conference half an hour after that.

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.