AUDUSD: Bullish but 0.7050 remains the real test
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered from 8am New York time Tuesday until 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long following some bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7025 or 0.7002.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following some bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7047 or 0.7088.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the picture had become more bullish (with a couple of bearish obstacles) and that 0.7047 was very likely to be today’s pivotal point. I thought that if this level was rejected following a dovish impact from the RBA’s minutes release due later, it could begin a substantial downwards movement.
The price got to within a few pips of 0.7047 and we got a bearish pull-back, although not a very deep one as the nearest support level at 0.7025 has still not been reached.
I think that if the level at 0.7047 is not exceeded soon, we are very likely to see a deeper downwards movement, and possibly even a major medium-term bearish reversal. On the other hand, if the price makes a strong break above 0.7050, that would be a very bullish sign, and I would take a bearish bias at today’s New York close if that happens.
I see today’s pivotal point as likely to be 0.7025.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the AUD. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 1:30pm London time, followed by minor speeches from the Chair of the Federal Reserve at 6pm and FOMC Member Evans at 8:30pm.