AUD/USD Forex Signal - 16 July 2019

Adam Lemon

AUDUSD: Bullish but 0.7050 remains the real test

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered from 8am New York time Tuesday until 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long following some bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7025 or 0.7002.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short following some bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7047 or 0.7088.

  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the picture had become more bullish (with a couple of bearish obstacles) and that 0.7047 was very likely to be today’s pivotal point. I thought that if this level was rejected following a dovish impact from the RBA’s minutes release due later, it could begin a substantial downwards movement.

The price got to within a few pips of 0.7047 and we got a bearish pull-back, although not a very deep one as the nearest support level at 0.7025 has still not been reached.

I think that if the level at 0.7047 is not exceeded soon, we are very likely to see a deeper downwards movement, and possibly even a major medium-term bearish reversal. On the other hand, if the price makes a strong break above 0.7050, that would be a very bullish sign, and I would take a bearish bias at today’s New York close if that happens.

I see today’s pivotal point as likely to be 0.7025.AUDUSDThere is nothing of high importance due today regarding the AUD. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 1:30pm London time, followed by minor speeches from the Chair of the Federal Reserve at 6pm and FOMC Member Evans at 8:30pm.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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