The US dollar has rallied quite nicely against the Mexican peso during the trading session on Friday going into the weekend. However, we have pulled back just a bit from the 50 day EMA, so there is the possibility that we continue to see a lot of volatility. It’s been a few days since I have looked at the Mexican peso here at Daily Forex, but if you remember I had previously mentioned that the 19 pesos level could be crucial.
The Thursday candle was a hammer right at that level, so that of course was a nice buying opportunity. However, this is now been realized, and we are starting to struggle at the 50 day EMA. That is very crucial to know, as it shows that the “easy money” has been made. There is a lot of resistance near the 19.25 pesos level, so if we can break above there then we could really start to pick up. This will be interesting to pay attention to though, because this is a risk on/risk off pair.
If the US dollar continues to climb against the Mexican peso, we could see the market go to the 19.50 level. However, if we pull back a bit and continue to see the US dollar fall, which coincidentally we have seen again several currencies around the world, then we could open the door to the 18.90 pesos level again and then the 18.70 pesos level.
Crude oil has gotten a bit ahead of itself so it’s possible that a pullback in the crude oil market may allow this pair to rally a bit. I don’t think it will be a major break out though, I think it will just be a nice little pop that will probably attract a lot of selling pressure near the 19.50 pesos handle.