USDJPY: Bearish consolidation below 107.90
Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the price reached 107.50.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken between 8am New York time Monday and 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Short Trades
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 107.90 or 108.16.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade
Long entry immediately upon the next touch of 106.02.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that the picture had become more bearish as there was momentum behind the Japanese Yen, but the future would now depend probably upon whether the U.S. Dollar continued to weaken or recovered. I was ready to take a bearish bias if the price made a strong bearish bounce at either of the two nearby resistance levels. This didn’t happen so it was enough of a call to keep out of trouble at least.
The picture now is still bearish as we are getting a classic consolidation pattern with both a higher swing low and a lower swing high. However, I still think it would be prudent to wait for a bearish failure to break above 107.90 for a high-probability short entry – I would take a bearish bias if that situation arises later today.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either the JPY or the USD.