NZD/USD Forex Signal - 25 June 2019

NZDUSD analysis: Bulls in danger at key 0.6650 / 0.6700 zone

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as unfortunately the bullish price action took place a few pips below the support level I had identified at 0.6590.

Today’s NZD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be taken between 8am New York time Tuesday and 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

Short Trades

  • Short entry following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6653 or 0.6700.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trades

  • Long entry following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6605, 0.6590, or 0.6558.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

NZD/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the price was recovering strongly, breaking up above 0.6600 and looking more bullish. Again, the NZD looked more bullish than the AUD, which was a bullish sign. The line of least resistance is upwards, so I thought that we were likely to see the price advance towards 0.6650 as long as the support level at 0.6605 held firm. I was right about being generally bullish, but a little over-optimistic with the exactness of my level at 0.6605.

There is medium-term bullish momentum, but there are two problems for bulls: the resistance at 0.6653 is holding the price down quite firmly and is the start of a medium-term inflective area which can be expected to be resistant. As the price has been rising solidly in a counter-trend way, we are probably due a pullback. In any case, there will be major central bank input due later today for the NZD which could push the price anywhere. If it is more dovish than expected, I could see a sharp fall, so bears might find this currency pair interesting later during the Asian session.NZDUSDConcerning the USD, there will be a release of CB Consumer Confidence data at 3pm London time, followed by a speech on monetary policy from the Chair of the Federal Reserve at 6pm. Regarding the NZD, the RBNZ will release their Rate Statement and Official Cash Rate at 3am.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.