NZDUSD analysis: More bearish below 0.6590
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were ever reached.
Today’s NZD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered between 8am New York time Thursday and 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trades
Short entry following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6590 or 0.6605.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trades
Long entry following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6558, 0.6543, or 0.6528.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
NZD/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday I thought the price was quite finely balanced here between 0.6590 and 0.6558.
It is likely that the U.S. data release due later, which was important, would give us some direction, so it was probably wise to stand aside until a couple of hours or so after that release later.
I stand by this call, but it would have been better to be more bearish and have some confidence in the new resistance level at 0.6590 which has held again and triggered a fresh downwards movement. Commodity currencies are generally weak, and the USD is strong, although the AUD is weaker than the USD. In this environment it could pay to be bearish, but the several support levels nearby still look dangerous and likely to prevent a long, strong downwards movement happening now.
I would take a bearish bias if we get another retracement to 0.6590 and then a firm bearish rejection of that level again.
There is nothing important due today concerning either the NZD or the USD.