BTC/USD Forex Signal

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Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there has not been good enough price action at either the support or resistance levels which were reached. However, these levels have held over the past day.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trades

  • Long entry at a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $7,463 or $7,202 or $6,811.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trades

  • Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $8,153, $8,340, or $8,610.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the bears had won out, pushing the price down quite far, although the support level at $7,830 seemed to be holding. As such, a long from this supportive area at $7,830 may be interesting. It was likely to be the day’s pivotal level and if the price can get established below it, I think that would be a bearish sign and suggest we are not going to see $9,000 again soon.

This was a good call insofar as $7,830 was the pivotal point for the day, and the break below it was a bearish sign. The technical picture is now more bearish as the retracement deepens despite the long-term bullish trend.

The level at $7,837 is likely to be today’s pivotal point and the early signs are that bulls will get the price established above it, which would be a bullish sign. The bullish trend may come back strongly, so I’d still be looking for a good long entry in this pair, maybe from a double bottom at $7,463.

btcusd

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time.

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.