USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast - 16 May 2019
The US dollar fell initially during the trading session on Wednesday but found enough support underneath to turn things around and form a bit of a hammer. That being the case, it’s very likely that the pair may try to break out above the ¥109.70 level. Once we break above there, the market will probably go looking to fill the gap at the ¥111 level. On the other hand, if we break down below the ¥109 level, then the market will probably unwind down to the ¥108 level.
This is a market that is very sensitive to risk appetite and does tend to move right along with the S&P 500. Ultimately, we will probably fill that gap but we need some type of outside influence to bring risk appetite on.
The Australian dollar fell during the trading session on Wednesday, but the recovers slightly at the end of the session. Ultimately, I do believe that this is a market that is going to continue to see a bit of downward push as the US/China trade talks drag on. If that’s going to be the case, then the Australian dollar will struggle to attract a lot of flow, as Australia’s so highly levered to the Chinese construction and manufacturing economy. With that, I don’t necessarily want to buy this pair. However, selling is going to be all but impossible, because we are in the middle of a major support level that extends down two hundred pips.
It’s simple, if the US dollar starts to fall in more of a “risk on” move, especially if it has to do with the US/China trade relations, I will be putting my money in this pair. If the US dollar continues to strengthen, I have no interest in shorting this pair until we break below the 0.68 handle.