NZD/USD analysis: weakness in NZD sends pair to multi-month lows
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bullish price action at 0.6574 after New York opened.
Today’s NZD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered between 8am New York time Wednesday and 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short Trade
Short entry following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6592.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade
Long entry following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6497.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
NZD/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the price remained within a medium-term bearish channel clearly marked in the price chart below. The price was near the upper edge of the channel and may provide an excellent short trade entry soon from a bearish failure to break above the resistant confluence between the upper trend line and the horizontal level at 0.6592. I was ready to take a bearish bias if we got a strong failure here later.
The price has continued to fall and looks set to make a multi-month low close at the end of today. There are no bullish technical factors at all and every reason to be bearish. The NZD is not falling quite as strongly as the AUD, so being short of AUD may be a better way to play this trade.
I take a bearish bias on this currency pair today.
There is nothing important due today concerning the NZD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 1:30pm London time.