Yesterday’s signals would have produced a short trade entry from the bearish engulfing candlestick which rejected the resistance level at 1.1227 during the New York session. However, this trade looks like it is going to be a loser, so it is probably wise to cut it short, as the price action looks bullish again.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken from 8am until 5pm London time today.
Short Trades
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1227 or 1.1277.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1190.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that a break above the nearest bearish trend line, or above 1.1200 or 1.1227, would be a bullish sign. Yet there is still a long-term bearish trend. I took no directional bias on this pair yesterday.
The price rose and made a decisive technical break above all the resistance below 1.1227, which is a bullish sign. The price action over the Asian session just now is also bullish, so it looks quite likely that we will see the price break above 1.1227. If it can trade above that level for a couple of hours, I would expect a further rise over the day, but the FOMC release due later could push the price anywhere so I have no bias. The level at 1.1227 should be pivotal today.
There is nothing important due today concerning the EUR – it is a public holiday in Germany, France and Italy today. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time, followed by the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate at 7pm and the press conference half an hour later.