NZD/USD Forex Signal - 25 April 2019

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Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as the price never quite reached the support level at 0.6579.

Today’s NZD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered between 8am New York time Thursday and 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Short Trade

  • Go short following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6658.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trades

  • Go long following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6579 or 0.6569.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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NZD/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the bearish trend is supported by the market’s view of the central bank, the RBNZ, which is seen as increasingly likely to soften its monetary policy by cutting rates over the foreseeable future. I said that there was no reason not to be bearish, especially as we had lower resistance at 0.6658. This was a good call, as the price fell over the day to reach still lower prices.

However, the price is now seeming to flatten out at this little area of two key support levels starting at 0.6579, so we may be about to get a bullish retracement. There is no obvious resistance level for quite a long way above, so it is hard to know where to look for a bearish turn after such a retracement. A better option might be to wait and see if the price breaks below 0.6569 and can trade below that support for a couple of hours on healthy volatility – I would take a fresh bearish bias if that happened, but I see a bullish retracement as likely to happen first.

nzdusd

There is nothing important due today concerning the NZD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Core Durable Goods Orders at 1:30pm London time.

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.