EUR/USD: Start of a Long-Term Bullish Reversal - 3 April 2019

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Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered before 5pm London time today.

Short Trades

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1300 or 1.1325.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trades

  • Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1214 or 1.1150.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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EUR/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the price was now close to multi-month lows although the speed of the move down was slowing. There were also some signs of buying at the round number of 1.1200. I was ready to take a short bias following a decisive break below 1.1190 and that never happened, so my scepticism over more downwards movement was a good call.

The daily chart shows something close to a bullish pin candlestick yesterday, and a continuation of the bullish move so far today – rejecting a long-term double bottom area and round number at 1.1200. There is still a bearish trend, but we may have just seen the start of a long-term bullish reversal.

Drilling down to a shorter-term chart shown below, a deeper bullish move will need to break the bearish trendline. There is also a new support level about 1.1200 to watch but I think the trend line is likely to be today’s pivotal point.EURUSDThere is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the EUR or the USD.

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.