Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered as the price was already below 1.1150 when the London session got underway.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today.
Short Trade
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1227.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade
- Go long immediately upon the next touch of 1.1030.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that there was a long-term bearish trend and no significant support levels between 1.1150 and 1.1030 so the price might fall much further over the day. I was ready to take a bearish bias if the price was below 1.1150 at 9am London time. It was, and it was a good call, as the price did fall over the day, although not by a great deal.
The price is making a bullish retracement, and the first hurdle the bulls will need to overcome is at about 1.1180, and then the upper channel trend line at about 1.1200. However, this pair is in a clear long-term bearish trend, unlike the other major Forex pairs, so the odds are still that the bullish retracement will not be able to overcome those obstacles, although today could be an up day. The price channel is shown in the chart below and has been readjusted – note that it is still symmetrical, which is a sign of relative reliability.
I would take a bearish bias if the price trades below 1.1140 for a couple of hours later.
There is nothing important due today concerning either the EUR or the USD.