Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as unfortunately the support level at 0.7039 was never quite reached.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered between 8am New York time Monday and 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trades
Long entry following some bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7070, 0.7039 or 0.7027.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trades
Short entry following some bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7117 or 0.7164.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that there was a strong battle here between bulls and bears. I thought it might take several days but it seemed the bulls would ultimately win – I just don’t see the price being forced below these (support) levels – but that does not mean it is a good time to buy yet, so it is probably best to stand aside. The first part of this analysis was a good call, but the second part wasn’t – the good buying opportunity came during the next Asian session.
The price has now failed just above the resistance level I identified at 0.7117. This may well just be a normal bearish retracement within a continuing bullish movement. A break above the earlier highs later would be a bullish sign but is unlikely to happen. I would be prepared to take a bullish bias if there is a strong bullish bounce at or very close to the nearest support level at 0.7070. There may also be new higher support at about 0.7090.
The RBA will be releasing minutes of their recent policy meeting during the Asian session, which could push the price around in an unpredictable way so be careful at that time.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the USD. Regarding the AUD, there will be a release of the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 12:30am London time.