Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as the bearish price action at 110.04 was insufficiently strong. However, the level did act as a cap on the high of day in a way which was very accurate.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered between 8am New York time and 5pm Tokyo time today only.
Short Trade
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 110.04.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 109.15.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote yesterday that I thought that the picture had become a little more bullish, and that we may well see a bigger break above 110.00 later. I was ready to take a bullish bias if the price had held above 110.04 for a couple of hours on relatively high volatility. This was a pretty good call as 110.04 did prove to be the pivotal level of the day, which eventually produced a downwards move after holding twice.
The picture now is more bearish although there is no long-term price trend. The flipping of 109.66 from support to resistance may be significant. If the US stock market goes into selling mode later after the New York open, we would be likely to get a further move down, possibly as far as 109.15. Another bearish sign is the relative strength of the Japanese Yen among all the major currencies over recent hours.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the JPY. Regarding the USD, the Chair of the Federal Reserve will be making a minor speech at Midnight London time.