USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast - 1 February 2019
The US dollar fell significantly during the trading session on Thursday but turned around to bounce and form a hammer like candle. Because of this, I believe that the market will probably bounce going into the jobs number, but I do think that given enough time we will see the sellers come back into this market as the Federal Reserve is very likely to be somewhat neutral. At this point, I look at the ¥109.50 level as an area where we could see sellers come back in. Signs of exhaustion will be sold, as I think we are still going down to the ¥108 level. That’s an area that is massively supportive, so I don’t know that we will break down there in the short term, but if we do finally get below that level, then I think the market goes down to the 107 young level, then possibly the ¥105 level after that. I believe that the “ceiling” in the market is at the ¥110 level.
The Australian dollar has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but gave back quite a bit of the gains as we reached towards the 200 day EMA, forming a shooting star. If we break down below the bottom of the candle stick for the trading session on Thursday, then the market will continue to go back and pull towards the 0.7150 level. Alternately, if we break above the top of the shooting star, then the market probably goes towards the 0.74 handle given enough time. This is a market that is highly sensitive to the US/China situation, and I think that the negative news will probably put a bit of a weight upon the Aussie overall.