USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast - 7 January 2019
The US dollar initially fell on Friday but got a bit of a boost from a strong jobs figure, and a huge move in the stock market after Jerome Powell suggested that the Federal Reserve was watching the markets and therefore there could be a bit of a “Fed put” being thought of yet again. Even though we have seen a break above the ¥108 level, we are still finishing the week down quite a bit. I think that we are looking at a short-term bounce, only to see the ¥110 level being far too resistive to continue to go higher. There is a certain amount of pessimism out there, and even though we got a bit of a boost late on Friday, it should be noticed that it had nothing to do with actual global or economic strength, except for perhaps the jobs figure. However, there’s a lot of arising wages and that number, and that should be bad for corporate profits. See the problem here? Between that in all of the trade issues, I think that this market is simply bouncing to correct from and oversold position but I do not expect it to be able to clear the ¥110 level easily.
The Australian dollar had a good day, but most of the gains were very late in the session, perhaps people getting out-of-the-way ahead of the weekend. The 50 day EMA is just above, and there is most certainly a downtrend in this pair. I do think that maybe were in the midst of a correction though, and if the US and China can come together or at least sound more amicable, that could be good for the Aussie going forward. I believe that the 0.7250 level will be a bit too far for the buyers to overcome though, and I believe that an exhaustive candle between here and there is the cell signal you’ll be waiting for.