EUR/USD and GBP/USD Forecast - 31 January 2019
The Euro initially pulled back during trading on Wednesday but then shot higher from the 50 day EMA. This was accelerated as the Federal Reserve press conference suggested that the Fed was on hold and going to be very slow and deliberate about tightening monetary policy. However, something that I find interesting is that the sellers jump in right at the 1.15 level, suggesting that we are not ready to go higher yet. The 200 day EMA is just above, and it should continue to offer massive resistance. Because of this, I suspect that we will get a pullback during the day but I also suspect that there is plenty of support underneath. A break above the 1.15 level still has to deal with the massive 200 day EMA, and of course even though the US dollar has gotten beaten up during the day, quite frankly the European Union is nowhere near tightening either.
The British pound rallied during the day, as we have seen a lot of noise in this market. As you can see, I have the 200 day EMA just below and I do think that the buyers underneath will continue to pick this market up. Although we have a lot of noise coming out of the Brexit, quite frankly I think that what traders are paying attention to is the possibility of a delayed Brexit, which extends the possibility of having some type of agreement. At this point, the question you should be asking yourself is “who is left to sell the British pound?” I think that might be one of the main drivers of this market as well. In fact, the 50 day EMA is starting to reach towards the 200 day EMA and crossing that would technically fulfill one of the major components of an uptrend. I think a pullback is coming, but that pullback should be thought of as value.