Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action at 1.3464.
Today’s USD/CAD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be taken between 8am London time and 5pm New York time today.
Short Trades
Go short after the next bearish price action rejection following the next touch of 1.3500, 1.3540, or 1.3563.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trades
Go long after the next bullish price action rejection following the next touch of 1.3417 or 1.3324.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CAD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the price was certainly in a bullish trend, but it was looking very weak, as if it had run out of momentum. I said that I would take a bullish bias later if the price started rising with unusually strong momentum, but not if the volatility remained relatively low. This was a great call as there was unusually strong volatility on a breakout to new highs, and the price rose for about another 50 pips once that had become obvious.
There is a bullish bias overall, with the Canadian Dollar dragged down by sharp falls in the price of Crude Oil. However, the picture is now complicated by several factors: Crude Oil is beginning to recover, at least temporarily; there is a cluster of technical resistance levels at and beyond the psychologically key level of the round number at 1.3500; and there are major data releases due for both sides of this pair. This all makes the next movements likely to be volatile and unpredictable. However, the balance of probabilities should favour bulls and I would again be bullish on a strong and sustained break above 1.3500.
Concerning the CAD, there will be a release of CPI data at 1:30pm London time. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the FOMC Economic Projections, Statement, and Federal Funds Rate at 7pm followed by the usual press conference half an hour later.