BTC/USD Forex Signal - 18 December 2018

Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached that day.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time today only.

Long Trade

  • Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $3,274.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade

  • Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of the bearish trend line currently sitting at about or $3,593.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Thursday that the picture is just looking a little more bullish, but I noted there was still a long-term bearish trend and heavy resistance. I thought that a sustained break above $3,593 would be a bullish sign, while a sustained break below the supportive trend line could trigger a fall to new long-term low prices near the $3,000 level. Neither scenario materialised that day, but the price then broke down to new long-term lows before moving upwards strongly yesterday. This leaves us with a more bullish technical picture, especially because the long-term bearish trend line has been broken to the upside. The price is now near the middle of a wide range with no obvious levels, so some kind of consolidation around $3,500 is probably going to be the most likely outlook over the short-term. I have no directional bias today and prefer to sit on the side here instead of getting involved.

btcusd

There is nothing important due today concerning the USD.

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment. Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy.