Yesterday’s signals produced a losing short trade following the bearish pin candlestick which rejected the resistance level identified at 113.56.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken between 8am New York time and 5pm Tokyo time, over the next 24-hour period only.
Short Trade
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 114.18.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trades
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 113.56, 113.07, or 112.57.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote yesterday that if the support at 113.07 held as we moved into the New York session, I would take a bullish bias. This was a great call as the level was already inflective by the time New York came on line, and the price has simply continued to advance from there, breaking above the former resistance level I had identified at 113.56, which now seems to have been turned into new higher support.
These are all bullish signs, and there is also a weak but real long-term bullish trend. Much will probably now depend upon the FOMC release due later, but I think a hawkish FOMC will produce more upside than a dovish FOMC might give downside, so the odds lie with the bulls here now. I take a bullish bias above 113.56 today.
There is nothing important due today concerning the JPY. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate at 7pm London time.