USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast - 26 November 2018
The US dollar has fallen during the session on Friday, but also has found enough support to turn around and form a bit of a hammer like candle. Overall, I believe that the uptrend line underneath will continue to offer support, just as the ¥112 level will. The 200 day EMA is just underneath there as well, and I think that we will continue to see buyers. I think that the ¥114.50 level above is a massive barrier to overcome. Overall, I think that the market will continue to be very noisy, but that uptrend line has been so reliable for so long that it makes sense that we would attract a lot of attention there. However, if we break down below the ¥111.50 level, then the market will undoubtedly unwind rather significantly. Keep in mind that this pair is somewhat risk sensitive at times, but the US dollar has done quite well against most currencies.
The Australian dollar fell during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to bounce around the “fair value area” that I have marked on the chart. The 0.7250 level is a level that has attracted a lot of attention in the past, and quite frankly I think that the market is fairly well balanced in that area. The 0.75 level above is massive resistance, just as the 0.70 level underneath there is massive support. I think that this pair will continue to struggle in general though, because the Sino-American relations are so bad. I believe that we are a long way from resolution to the trade tariff concerns, and therefore I think it’s only a matter of time before we roll over.