EUR/USD
The Euro initially tried to rally during most of the session on Thursday but found enough resistance at the 1.14 level to roll over slightly. I think that the market is going to continue to be choppy, and essentially range bound overall. With that in mind, I think that short-term back and forth trading is probably about as good as this market will get, and that you should probably be very careful with any major expectations. I still see the 1.15 level above as a major resistance barrier, and if we were to clear that level it would of course be a very good sign. Otherwise, I believe that we will see signs of exhaustion that we can sell and perhaps trying to push this market back down to the 1.13 level. I think the one thing you can count on is a lot of high-frequency trading noise.
GBP/USD
The British pound continues to struggle to keep gains, and as you can see we roll over again during the day on Thursday. We have a significant amount of support at the 1.27 level though, so we need to break down below there before we can really start going with any type of ferocity to the downside. I believe at this point it’s likely that we will see that break down, and that once we do the measured move from the triangle is down to the 1.22 handle. I also see the 200 day moving average above at the downtrend line, so I think it’s very likely we will continue to see selling pressure. It’s only going to take about headline or two about the Brexit to send this market lower again.
