EUR/USD and GBP/USD Forecast - 16 November 2018
The Euro initially fell during the trading session on Thursday but turned around to break above the 1.13 level again. This is a market that is trying to figure out what’s going on with the European Union, the Brexit, the Italian situation, and a whole host of other things. The 1.13 level has been important more than once, so it’s not surprising that the market continues to see a lot of uncertainty. At this point, if we break down to a fresh, new low I think the market then goes to the 1.11 handle underneath. Otherwise, we could rally towards the 1.15 handle, but that’s an area that should continue to offer resistance again. I think ultimately we are in a downtrend and will be looking for selling opportunities after short-term rallies.
The British pound continue to get hammered during the trading session on Thursday, reaching down towards the 1.27 level underneath which has been more than simple support. I think if we can break down below there, then the market probably goes down to the 1.22 handle, because it is the measure of the move based upon the triangle. I have no interest in buying the British pound, because with the mass resignations that happen during the day in defiance of Teresa May, I think that the British pound is teetering on the brink of falling apart yet again. The 200 day moving average is sitting just above, and I think it will continue to be a massive resistance barrier also. It’s not until we get some type of Brexit deal or some type of certainty that we will probably see a sustained to rally in the British pound.