Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered as the bullish price action at 112.45 took place a little too early. Unfortunately, the low of the day was only a pip above the support level identified at 111.94.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered between 8am New York time and 5pm Tokyo time, during the next 24-hour period.
Short Trade
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 113.56.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 111.94.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that that the two nearby levels were likely to be pivotal: a break below 112.45 was likely to lead to a fall to at least 112.00 and a break above 112.83 was likely to lead to a rise to at least 113.25. I was correct, as the break below 112.45 did lead to a fall to a low a few pips below 112.00.
The picture has become more bullish since my last forecast on Thursday, with the price continuing to move up to challenge the nearest resistance level at 112.84. There is low volatility in this pair, so a failure here at 112.84 would not surprise me, but a bullish break is also quite possible, which is why I am ignoring this level now. The best that can be said is that if the price remains above 112.84 for a few hours, it is likely to rise further later.
There is nothing important due today concerning either the JPY or the USD.