Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action at 1.1604.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm London time today.
Short Trades
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1604 or 1.1645.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1535.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday I remained weakly bearish as long as the price remained below 1.1604, at least until 1.1535 was hit again. A sustained break above 1.1604 would be a bullish sign, so that was the level to watch.
This did not work out so well as after an initial fall to 1.1535, the price spent most of the day rising, eventually breaking up past the resistance at 1.1604 when the sharp rise in the British Pound had the effect of dragging up the Euro. The pivotal levels were accurately pivotal, though.
The price now looks neither bullish nor bearish, so I think this currency pair might be difficult to trade today except scalping off rejections of the key levels. The price will probably move little until the ADP forecast is released later in the New York session. I have no directional bias today.
There is nothing important due today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data at 1:15pm London time, followed by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 3pm, and Crude Oil Inventories at 4pm.