Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was insufficiently bearish price action at either 0.9905 or 0.9885.
Today’s USD/CHF Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trades
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9953 or 0.9978.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.9905, 0.9885, or 0.9827.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CHF Analysis
I wrote yesterday that I had a bearish bias today as long as the price was below 0.9885. This was the pivotal level of the day. It wasn’t a great call as the price did not remain below 0.9885 for very long, but once the level was broken the price then went on to move upwards quite steadily as the dollar recovered globally. The technical picture remains dominated by the bearish channel which can be seen within the price chart below. Direction looks uncertain as there are a few historic inflection points which might influence turning points today as well as the more obvious levels. I have no bias today, and I think the more medium-term direction will increasingly be influenced by whether any trend lines reached hold or break.
There is nothing important due today concerning the CHF. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data at 1:15pm London time, followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI at 3pm, Crude Oil Inventories at 3:30pm, and the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate at 7pm.