Last Tuesday’s signals were not triggered, as unfortunately the perfect bearish turn at the resistance level identified at 0.7438 took place too early (before the New York open).
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.50%.
Trades may only be entered between 8am New York time and 5pm Tokyo time, during the next 24-hour period.
Long Trade
Long entry following some bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7374.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade
Short entry following some bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7479.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote last Tuesday that it now seemed as if the bullish movement was running out of steam close to the nearest resistance level of 0.7438. I thought that if the price slowly cooled off here at this level, it could set up for a nice short trade before if falls back down again, to at least 0.7412. I was correct in seeing 0.7438 as a pivotal level, but unfortunately the price reversed very quickly there, so it was too early for a short trade entry.
The picture is now more bullish, with the resistance at 0.7438 being wiped out, and the price moving in slow, wide, yet bullish swings. The price is still essentially within a long-term consolidation area, so I call this consolidation with a slightly bullish bias. I do not see any good opportunities as likely to arise today in this currency pair.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of PPI data at 1:30pm London time. Concerning the AUD, there will be a release of the RBA’s Monetary Policy Statement at 2:30am.