Yesterday’s signals may have given a short trade following the near-pin candlestick which bearishly rejected the resistance level identified at 110.40. This trade is in a little profit at the time of writing, making slow progress but looking OK to go down some more. It will probably be best to be relatively conservative with profit targets on this trade.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may be taken from 8am New York time until 5pm Tokyo time, during the next 24-hour period only.
Short Trades
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 110.58 or 110.86.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trades
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 109.85 or 109.60.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote yesterday that it looked like there was long-term potential to the upside, in line with the long-term bullish trend, but it still did not look as if it will happen just yet. The price would still need to break above the cluster of resistance levels starting at 110.40. This was a good call, as the price has turned bearish ever since it hit that level at 110.40. There is still upside potential, but it looks as if it is going to take a while to get there, if at all. The good news is that if the price does manage to rise beyond 111.00 it will be a very obvious breakout after a period of trapped price which should be profitable on the long side.
The price may not fall a great deal further here, with possible support levels at previous highs above 110.00. A break below the nearest key support at 109.85 would be a bearish sign.
I have no immediate directional bias today – much is likely to depend upon the U.S. inflation data release due later.
There is nothing due today concerning the JPY. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CPI data at 1:30pm London time.