Yesterday’s signals produced a profitable long trade from the bullish engulfing candlestick which rejected the support level at 0.9936. The trade should be exited now at previously at the resistance level of 0.9985 which is showing signs that it will hold today.
Today’s USD/CHF Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm London time today, over the next 24-hour period only.
Short Trades
Short trade entry following a bearish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9985, 1.0005, or 1.0111.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trades
Long trade entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.9936, 0.9913, or 0.9827.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CHF Analysis
I wrote yesterday that I had no directional bias today and noted that we were quite likely to see further consolidation ahead of the SNB’s quarterly central bank input tomorrow. This was a good call as all the key levels which have been reached over the past 24 hours have held. We are now going to get the Swiss National Bank’s quarterly policy release and interest rate, which tends to produce unpredictable and volatile price movement. The best that can be said is that although there is arguably a bullish trend, the price has remained very close to and just under the parity level at 1.000 which is psychologically important, so the Bank’s release could produce the start of a long-term, strong and decisive movement away from this parity level, although this currency pair does tend to consolidate over long periods. Therefore, the best approach will probably be to wait for the release and consider taking a long-term trade if the release produces a clear market sentiment and move away from the parity level.
There is nothing important due today concerning the USD. Regarding the CHF, there will be a release of the Swiss National Bank’s Monetary Policy Assessment and LIBOR Rate at 8:30am London time, followed an hour later by the usual press conference.