Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were ever reached.
Today’s USD/CHF Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today, during the next 24-hour period only.
Short Trades
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9913 or 0.9936.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.9827.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CHF Analysis
I noted that there had been some more strongly bullish price action which meant that I was now very doubtful about the gentle bearish bias I had. This worked out well as there is still more bullishness in the action, with another bearish trend line being broken, and the price has refused to fall. I said that the area at and above 0.9900 was still likely to be resistant and that has not changed. The U.S. Dollar is certainly looking more bullish now than it was at the end of last week, however if it does move up later after the FOMC release, it looks as if it will face a lot of resistance below the parity level at 1.000 and so this might not be a great pair to trade when the Dollar is strong. On the other hand, if the FOMC release weakens the Dollar, there should be good potential here for the price to fall. I expect the price will do little today before the FOMC release, so I have no directional bias.
There is nothing due today concerning the CHF. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of PPI data at 1:30pm London time, followed by Crude Oil Inventories at 3:30pm and then the FOMC releases at 7pm followed by the usual press conference half an hour later.