Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm London time today, during the next 24-hour period only.
Short Trades
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1875 or 1.1897.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trades
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1732, 1.1709, or 1.1648.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that I did not see the price as truly ready to move down significantly, and that the day’s movement would probably be dominated by the U.S. inflation data. I think I was right on both, as the nearest support level at 1.1732 held and as the U.S. data was exactly as expected. However, the picture does look a little more bearish today, with the price dropping down to approach 1.1732 again and looking a little heavy. The major event of this week is due later after London closes, the FOMC releases, and I think the support level at 1.1732 will more or less hold until that data comes out. The price could then move anywhere, strongly. I have no directional bias today beyond expecting the supportive area to hold over the coming hours.
There is nothing due today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of PPI data at 1:30pm London time, followed by Crude Oil Inventories at 3:30pm and then the FOMC releases at 7pm followed by the usual press conference half an hour later.