Yesterday’s signals produced a long trade at the pin candlestick on the hourly chart which rejected the support level identified at 0.7559 during the Asian session. At the time of writing, the trade is in profit and moving in the right direction.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.50%.
Trades must be taken from 8am New York time until 5pm Tokyo time, over the next 24-hour period only.
Long Trade
Go long following some bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7559.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trades
Go short following some bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7641.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that I had no short-term directional bias today, but I would be more comfortable taking a long trade from a bounce at 0.7559 than a short trade from 0.7641. This turned out to be a good call, as the price moved down over the first 24 hours before turning bullish at the support level of 0.7559, from where it has been rising over the past few hours. If this trade was missed, it might be possible to get in later at the same level if the price dips to 0.7559 and bounces again with the low essentially intact. It looks like it is going to be good support and I have a mildly bullish bias until the FOMC releases due later today, which could push the U.S. Dollar anywhere and completely override any technical analysis that can be made here.
It is worth noting that the Australian Dollar is becoming the next strongest currency after the U.S. Dollar.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of PPI data at 1:30pm London time, followed by Crude Oil Inventories at 3:30pm and then the FOMC releases at 7pm followed by the usual press conference half an hour later. Concerning the AUD, there will be releases of Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data at 2:30am.