Last Thursday’s signals produced a losing short trade from the bearish rejection of the resistance level at 1.2187.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm London time today.
Short Trade
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2187.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
Last Thursday I had a bearish bias, writing that a break below 1.2159 could see a strong further fall. This was correct, but unfortunately the ECB release pushed the price temporarily above the resistance level at 1.2187 before it made that further fall, meaning an early short entry would have been stopped out. The price has now broken below its multi-month range and is in a 3-month bearish trend, which is significant. However, there are now two factors bears should be concerned about: the British Pound is looking weaker than the Euro after poor British GDP data was released last Friday, and the Euro has been bought over recent hours suggesting some relatively strength as the Dollar stops advancing. I remain bearish below 1.2187 and see lower potential resistance at 1.2150.
There is nothing due today concerning either the EUR or the USD.