EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair fell during training on Thursday, crashing into the uptrend line just below. The uptrend line of course defines part of the uptrend itself, so the fact that it held during the session on Thursday is a good sign. I think that we will of course await the jobs number to figure out where to go next, but eventually we should see some type of conviction. I believe that if we bounce from here, the market should continue to go towards the 1.23 level, followed by the 1.24 handle, and then of course the 1.25 level after that. That is the “ceiling” of the market, and I think that a break above there should continue to send this market towards the 1.32 handle above, based upon breaking out of the top of a bullish flag. The alternate scenario of course is that we break down below the uptrend line, slicing below the 1.22 handle. If that happens, the market more than likely goes down to the 1.21 level.
GBP/USD
The British pound fell significantly during the trading on Thursday but has recovered quite nicely at the 50-day exponential moving average. By doing so, we bounced towards the 1.40 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant number, and an area that is both support and resistance. If we can bounce from here, the market should then go looking towards the 1.41 level, and then the 1.42 level. Longer-term, I believe that we will continue to see this market reach towards the 1.43 level, which has been significant resistance in the past.
The alternate scenario is a breakdown below the 50-day EMA, which could send this market down to the 1.38 level somewhat rapidly. However, I still believe in the uptrend overall.
