WTI Crude Oil
The WTI Crude Oil market fell slightly during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to struggle going higher. I think that the previous uptrend line should offer a significant amount of resistance, so it makes sense that we have rolled over a bit. I think that the market will eventually go lower, especially considering that we are oversupplied in the crude oil market. You’ll notice that I have the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, and we have stalled right at the 20 SMA level. Ultimately, it’s only a matter of time before we reach towards the $60 level underneath, and then perhaps the $58 level next. I believe that we won’t make a higher high this year, and I believe that unless the US dollar collapses significantly, I think that the bearish pressure will continue. I look at rallies as selling opportunities.
Natural Gas
The natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday, initially falling, but then turning around to form a hammer. I believe that the market will eventually break out above the top of the range for the session on Wednesday, which is a buying signal. I don’t like buying this market though, so I think that if we get some type of pop higher, it should be a nice opportunity to start selling again. Ultimately, I believe that the $3.00 level above is going to be a significant barrier to break, and I would be all over an opportunity to short this market near that level. Oversupply in natural gas markets should continue to be an issue, especially considering that we are leaving the high demand season, so I think that the market will continue to find sellers every time it rallies. I have no interest in buying what I think will be a short covering rally.
