USD/JPY
The US dollar has been very volatile against the Japanese yen during February trading, dropping down as low as 106 before rallying a bit. As I write this article, we are currently testing the 107.50 level. I think that if we can break above the 108 handle, the market is likely to go towards the 110 level above, which has been an area of interest. Otherwise, we will probably pull back and retest the uptrend line just below. That coincides nicely with the 105 level, and I do not expect a breakdown below there. If we do, that could be a bit catastrophic and I would fully anticipate that the market drives down to the 100 handle, which would be a very drastic move.
I believe that rising interest rates in the 10-year note should continue to push the dollar yen higher, and of course if the stock market can rally, that also could be a driver of this pair to the upside as it typically lifts it. A break above the top of the shooting star on the weekly chart, the 108 handle, is also a shattering of significant resistance. At that point, we have reentered the previous consolidation area that I have marked with an aqua rectangle on the chart. I suspect that this could be a very difficult month, so unless we get some type of clear-cut signal, I’m probably going to stay away from this pair as there are much easier markets to deal with. However, I recognize that if we do get momentum, this pair can move rather quickly so keep that in mind. In general, I believe that position sizing is going to be crucial, and I would only add to a position once I have a handle or more in the profit column.
