The US dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, after the stronger than anticipated jobs number. It was very healthy in a lot of ways, and of course the bond markets have seen yields rise in America, and that should continue to push this market to the upside. That’s not to say that is can be the easiest trade to take, but we also have the benefit of support underneath that should continue to push to the upside. However, if we were to break down below the 109.50 level, then I think we would revisit the 108.50 level. A break above the top of the daily candle for the Friday session has the market looking for the 111.50 level next. Expect volatility, as this pair tends to do just that, react violently.
The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the day but after the jobs number on Friday, we have broken down significantly. I believe that the market is going to test the 0.79 handle next, which should be supportive. If we break down below there, it’s likely that the market will then go to the 0.78 handle, followed by the 0.7750 level. This is a massive pullback, and I think we have a bit further to go in this pair. The jobs number of course helped the US dollar, and you need to pay attention to the gold markets, because they have the influence that is typically seen on the Australian dollar going forward. If gold markets can suddenly rally, then that will be good for this pair. Otherwise, we should continue to see the market bounce around, perhaps looking towards the 0.75 level longer term. At this point, I have no interest in buying, but I would take a long position based on a strong daily candle, but I’m going to be very patient before buying.