Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was insufficiently bearish price action at 1.2440.
Today’s USD/CAD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm New York time during the next 24 hours.
Long Trade
Long entry after the next bullish price action rejection following the next touch of 1.2314.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trades
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2475, or 1.2495.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CAD Analysis
The resistance level at 1.2440 didn’t work, as I had thought yesterday if it did not hold until the New York session. Apart from the invalidation of that level, the major technical development today is the recovery of the U.S. Dollar, which is persisting here against the Canadian Dollar. Unfortunately, we cannot use this with reliability for much longer, because there is major central bank input due later today from the Bank of Canada which is likely to become the major price driver. The best opportunity likely to arise here today would be a reversal from a key level after a price spike, the further away, the better.
I have no directional bias.
There is nothing important due today concerning the USD. Regarding the CAD, there will be a release of the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report, Rate Statement and Overnight Rate at 3pm London time, followed by the Bank’s Press Conference at 4:15pm.