This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
· Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months.
· Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months.
· Trading against very strong counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
· Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let’s take a look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast January 2018
For the month of January, we forecasted that the best trades will be long EUR/USD and long GBP/USD. The performance so far is as follows:
Weekly Forecast 21st January 2018
Last week, we made no forecast.
This week, we again make no forecast, as there were no strong counter-trend movements last week.
This week has been dominated by relative strength in the British Pound, and relative weakness in the Canadian Dollar.
Volatility was much lower than it was last week, with less than 8% of the major or minor currency pairs changing in value by more than 1%. Volatility is likely to be higher over this coming week.
You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
We teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that should be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week, which might result in either reversals or breakouts:
Let’s see how trading two of these key pairs last week off key support and resistance levels could have worked out:
We had expected the level at 0.9574 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows the how the price hit this level during the Asian session last Wednesday. A possible entry was signaled by the bullish inside candle which formed immediately after the price was hit, marked by the up arrow within the chart below. This long trade gave an acceptable maximum reward to risk ratio of more than 2 to 1, if the stop had been placed just below the swing low at the entry candlestick.
We had expected the level at 88.42 might act as resistance, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows the how the price hit this level during the Asian session last Tuesday, which can be an excellent time of day to trade currency crosses based upon Asian currencies such as this one. A possible entry was signaled by the bearish inside candle which formed immediately after the price was hit, marked by the down arrow within the chart below. This short trade gave an excellent maximum reward to risk ratio of more than 5 to 1, if the stop had been placed just above the swing low at the entry candlestick.
You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.