Gold Treads Water Ahead of Fed Meeting - 31 January 2018

Gold prices ended Tuesday’s session down $2.05 an ounce, extending their losses to a second straight session, as investors took a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy announcement. XAU/USD bounced after the market found support just above the $1334-$1333 area, but it failed to penetrate the Ichimoku cloud on the hourly chart. On the economic data front, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index came in at 125.4, up from the previous month’s 123.1 and above expectations for a reading of 123.2.

The market is currently trading within the borders of the 4-hourly and the hourly Ichimoku clouds. In addition to that, the Tenkan-Sen (nine-period moving average, red line) and the Kijun-Sen (twenty six-period moving average, green line) are flat, suggesting a range-bound movement in the near term. The bulls still have the long-term technical advantage, but they will need to push prices back above the Ichimoku clouds on the H4 chart to gain momentum.


If the market sucessfully penetrates the hourly cloud, it is likely that XAU/USD will move towards the 1351/0 area, the confluence of the Kijun-sen and the top of the cloud on the 4-hourly chart. The bulls have to capture that strategic fort to challenge the bears waiting in the 1358/5 zone. A break through there brings in 1365. To the downside, keep an eye on the 1334/3 zone. If this support is broken, then the bears will be aiming for 1329 afterwards. Not too far from there, the 1326/5 area stands out as a key technical support. A break below 1325 indicates that the 1321 level will be the next target.


Alp Kocak has been trading Forex since 2003. He writes technical analysis based on Japanese candlesticks and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo.