Yesterday’s signals may have produced a profitable short trade following the bearish rejection of the resistance level at 1.2004. This would be in profit and looks as if it could fall further, although it is in an area where taking at least partial profit looks like a good idea.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Long Trades
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1885 or 1.1863.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2005.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that it was likely to be a day of price consolidation, and that bounces at key levels were more likely than breaks. The story was more complicated than that, with the price spiking strongly up beyond the 1.2000 area before falling quickly back to the area where the move originated from. Although the lower resistances were broken, the level at 1.2004 held convincingly, which is not a surprise as it is confluent with the big round number and psychological level at 1.2000. There is still a long-term bullish trend, but the bears have been in control since the new year began. Looking ahead, it seems that the price is back in an area of congestion, so sideways movement is the most likely scenario today. A sustained break below 1.1920 would be a very bearish sign.
There is nothing important due today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of PPI data at 1:30pm London time.