BTC/USD Forex Signal - 18 January 2018

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was insufficiently bullish price action at $10,074.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 1.00% per trade.

Trades can be entered at any time.

Long Trades

  • Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,694 or $8,976 but be cautious.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade

  • Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $13,217.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

This is a very significant time for Bitcoin, and for cryptocurrencies in general. I wrote yesterday that I had a bearish bias, and if the price broke below $10,000 it could easily fall further to $5,000 in a few hours or days. If there are short-term profits to be made, I don’t see how it could be on anything but the short side. It looks like I was overly bearish here, as although the price did break below the psychologically key $10,000 level with its first +50% retrace since 2015, and get as low as $9,240 at one stage, it has made a technically strong recovery, wiping out a new resistance level in the process and printing a new probable support level at $10,694 (although I am not ready to trade off that level yet. If the support at $10,694 holds, then there should be plenty of room for the price to move up before encountering resistance, due to the speed for the previous downward movement. The next day or so is probably going to determine whether Bitcoin starts to become perceived as a “burst bubble”, or as something more resilient than that. I have no directional bias, but I am watching very closely.BTCUSD

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Building Permits data at 1:30pm London time, followed by Crude Oil Inventories at 4pm.

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment. Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy.