BTC/USD and BTC/JPY Forecast - 5 January 2018

BTC/USD

Bitcoin tried to rally initially during the trading session on Thursday, but struggled above the $15,000 level. As I look at the chart, it’s easy to see a consolidation area between the $16,000 level above and the $12,000 level below there. I think that the market testing the 20 SMA and failing in the middle of the Bollinger bands suggests that we are going to continue to drop from here. I think that Bitcoin markets have struggled for clarity after the futures markets opened, and I think that we are currently looking for some type of value to place upon the crypto currency. I think that the malaise continues to be an issue with this market, as traders are trying to come to terms with whether the Bitcoin markets have entered a new phase. I believe that institutional investors in the market will probably make Bitcoin behave more like a chore market, and because of this it’s likely that the explosive gains are a thing of the past. Back and forth trading with an eye on the $12,000 level is how I look at Bitcoin currently against the US dollar.

BTCUSD

BTC/JPY

Bitcoin rallied a bit during the trading session against the Japanese yen, but struggled at the ¥1.8 million level, and more importantly for the design of this chart, the 20 SMA in the middle of the Bollinger bands. I believe that the market forming a bit of an exhaustive candle suggests that we are probably going to drop from here, perhaps reaching towards the ¥1.5 million level. If we do break above the shooting star for the day, I think it’s not until we clear the ¥2 million level that I am comfortable putting serious money to work. I believe in general though, Bitcoin is going to drift lower.

BTCJPY

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.