EUR/USD Analysis - 26 December 2017


In the start of this week’s trading, and after the holiday break, the EUR/USD advanced towards the resistance at 1.1873  at the time of writing, after closing last week’s trading at the 1.1816 support level. The victory of pro-independence parties in the recent Catalonian elections brought back political fears in the Eurozone, after a calm pace in the largest economy in the region, Germany, with Angel Merkel closer to form a collision government. With the passing the US tax cut bill, long awaited since Trump became the president of the United States, the USD was under bearish pressure and the US Stock markets retreated against expectations. It seems that the markets want to digest the essence of this law and its effects on reviving the American economy. Last week, it was announced that US GDP growth was lower than expected, and the unemployment claims increased, while the only positivity was from the Philly Manufacturing Index and the New House sales.

The EUR/USD will continue  to be affected by the directions of the US Federal Bank, with a hawkish policy including more steps to raise the US interest rates, the last of which could be this week, which will be the third raise this year, and with expectations of 3 other raises next year. Along with the inflation rates which are lower than the Fed’s target. And, the monetary policy of the European Central Bank, with worries of low inflation rates that have not reached 2%; the ECB’s inflation target. The US Job data at the end of last week’s trading showed strength, but there is still fear around the average wage growth in the country, even with employment reaching the lowest levels for 17 years. Overall, the greenback’s momentum increased by interest rate rise and the US tax cut bill.

Technically: the EUR/USD is at a neutral zone with bullish bias which will gain strength if the pair settled above the 1.19 top, which supports the move towards stronger peaks at 1.2050 and 1.1966. On the bearish side, the nearest support levels are 1.1830, 1.1750 and 1.1650, the latest is a confirmation of the downward trend. In light of market closer due to holidays this week and early next week for Christmas and New Year, traders need to be alert of price gaps due to markets coming back in interrupted form sometimes, and it is better to avoid trading until the markets are fully back to normal.

On the economic data front: Economic agenda is free today of any important data from the Eurozone or the US.


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