Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were ever reached.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken from 8am New York time until 5pm Tokyo time, during the next 24-hour period only.
Protect any open trade at 6:30pm.
Short Trades
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 112.74 or 113.28.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trades
Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 111.52 or 111.25.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
The technical situation is now more bearish than it was yesterday. The nearest bearish trend line has had to be adjusted upwards a little more, but it essentially held and continued to drive the price down. The price did not retrace to even the first, nearest resistance level at 112.73. There has been a clear and strengthening bearish pattern taking hold since the second half of last week. It all began from the earlier rejection of the 6-month high price at 114.50. Longer-term charts show this pair is moving in an expanding range, but ultimately going nowhere.
There is no long-term trend so if you are going to trade this pair it makes sense to trade in the direction of the medium-term flow, which is bearish. I maintain a bearish bias at least until 111.52.
There is nothing important due today concerning the JPY; it is a public holiday in Japan. Regarding the USD, there will be releases of Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims at 1:30pm London time, followed by Crude Oil Inventories at 5pm, and FOMC Meeting Minutes at 7pm.