WTI Crude Oil
The WTI Crude Oil market initially tried to rally during the day on Wednesday, but cratered and broke below the $45 level. Because of this, I believe that we are going to continue to go lower from here. I think that the next market move will be down to the $43 level, and that the $45 level could be resistive above. Selling short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion might be the way to go. Ultimately, if we can break down below the bottom of the previous low, the market should continue to go much lower. The $47 level above should be the absolute ceiling in the market, but given enough time I think that the market will continue to suffer at the hands of selling pressure. Ultimately, the market will continue to look very in general, as the oversupply issue is without a doubt still front and center.
Natural Gas
The natural gas markets initially tried to rally during the day on Monday, but ultimately the three dollars level above continues to be resistive. The fact that we did this, suggests that we are ready to start falling again, perhaps reaching down to the $2.90 level, then eventually the $2.75 level underneath. Anytime we rally, I believe that the market will continue to find bearish pressure because of the oversupply issues in this market as well. I think that energy in general is going to suffer, and therefore I don’t have any interest in buying. In fact, I think that the three dollars level represents a significant amount of resistance all the way to at least the $3.10 level. Given enough time, I think that the seasonality of the market works against this as well, so I don’t have any interest in buying natural gas currently, and I don’t know that it’s going to happen anytime soon.
