WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas Forecast - 14 February 2017

The WTI Crude Oil market fell significantly during the day on Monday as traders begin to focus on the oversupply. Even though we’ve had a production cut come out of the OPEC countries, the reality is that they aren’t going to be able to overwhelm the market. There is far too much in the way of supply to think that demand can take it out, and because of this I believe that it’s only a matter of time before the sellers take over completely. However, we are obviously not ready to do that yet. The 50-day exponential moving average just below will continue to offer dynamic support, so it’s likely that we will see a lot of volatility. Currently, I believe that the $54 level above is the resistance, while the $51 level below that is support. Chopping back and forth will be the way going forward, and I believe that the confusion will probably only get stronger over the next several weeks. Sooner rather than later I would anticipate a move in one direction or another, and even if we break out I believe that the $60 level would cause even more trouble.