EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the month on April, as we continue to grind away between the 1.10 level on the bottom, and the 1.15 level on the top. Quite frankly, I think this market is going to continue to do the same thing that it’s done over the last couple of months, consolidate. It is difficult to imagine that this market will make any sudden moves, but I do have a couple of parameters that I would pay attention to in this particular market to discern where we are going to go next.
Boundaries
If we can break above the 1.15 handle, I feel that the market would then continue to go higher as it would turn into a bit of a “buy-and-hold” type of situation as the Euro would have broken above significant resistance. I can also say the same thing in the negative if we break down below the 1.10 level, because it offers so much in the way of support. That is a significant breakdown, but having said that there is noise below there so I think it’s going to be easier to buy the breakout.
In the meantime, I am looking for short-term trades in a back-and-forth manner as it is a market that should continue to consolidate in the near future, and could spend the entire month of May doing that. With this, I don’t have a whole lot of interest in trading this market for any real length of time and will continue to focus on the hourly and maybe the 4 hour charts over the course of the month until we break out of those ranges. There is a lot of confusion as to what the ECB and the Federal Reserve may do next, and that will translate into a lot of confusion in this particular currency pair. Quite frankly, the EUR/USD pair might be one of the more difficult ones to trade this month.
